India recorded a rare increase in exports to China in 2025. However, the trade deficit widened to a record level, highlighting the ongoing imbalance between the two economies.

According to Chinese customs data, India’s exports to China rose by $5.5 billion during January–December 2025. Total shipments reached $19.75 billion, marking a 9.7% year-on-year increase. This growth stands out after several years of flat export performance.

Trade Deficit Expands Despite Export Gains

While India’s exports improved, Chinese shipments to India rose faster. China’s exports to India increased 12.8% to $135.87 billion in 2025. As a result, India’s trade deficit with China widened to an all-time high of $116.12 billion.

Overall bilateral trade reached a record $155.62 billion, reflecting strong trade activity despite global economic uncertainty and higher tariffs in international markets.

Export Basket Slowly Diversifying

Industry experts noted that India’s export growth reflects gradual diversification. Products such as marine goods, oil meals, spices, and telecom equipment gained traction in the Chinese market. Weak domestic demand in China also created opportunities for select imports.

India continues to push for wider market access in key sectors. These include pharmaceuticals, information technology services, and agricultural products. Trends in Indian rice prices and export competitiveness remain important for agri-trade discussions, even though rice exports to China are still limited.

Global Trade Context Remains Complex

China maintained strong global trade performance in 2025. Its overall trade surplus climbed close to $1.2 trillion, supported by diversified export markets and a strong manufacturing base.Economists, however, warned that global demand may soften ahead. Slower growth could affect future trade flows, including exports from the top 10 rice exporters in India and other emerging suppliers.